THE PEOPLE’S BUDGET

1. INTRODUCTION

I am pleased to present to the nation, on behalf of BOCONGO and every one of its affiliates, what we in civil society call the People’s Budget. The People’s  Budget is a mock budget that presents an allocation of public resources that in our view better serves societal welfare than the national budget. Unlike the national budget, the People’s Budget is not financed. It has, as a reference and comparator, the National Budget. It is, in both design and purpose, a critical budget analysis and advocacy tool that seeks to achieve three immediate objectives, namely:

a) Inform and support advocacy for inclusive public budgets, with particular focus on expenditure and revenue mobilisation choices that prioritise the wellbeing of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society, e.g., children, seniors (old people), poor people, people living with disabilities, women, the working poor and disadvantaged groups more generally.

b) Highlight, and advocate for increased spending on, issues that are critical to the wellbeing of society. We take our cue from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are the world’s consensus blueprint for peace and inclusive prosperity for people and the planet within and across generations. Some of the priority issues are peace and security, poverty and employment, education, health, and environmental sustainability.

c) Highlight the weaknesses of the national budget: In the final analysis, the People’s Budget seeks to change the views of both society and the government regarding budget priorities and practices. This can only be achieved if the underlying priorities and biases of the National Budget are revealed through a rigorous evidence based tool such as the People’s Budget.

By addressing these immediate objectives, the People Budget contributes towards better economic governance, greater budget integrity, increased fiscal transparency and accountability, and wider popular participation and ownership of the budget.

2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT

The People’s Budget responds not only to the National Budget but to a particular development context as well. Botswana is an upper middle income country whose defining long term objective is to become a High Income Country by 2036, i.e., achieve a per capita GDP of $13,205 (approximately P139, 291) in 2021 prices. However, several of Botswana’s key development indicators are atypical of upper middle-income countries.

For instance, the poverty head count rate was measured at 16.3% on income in 2016 and 20.84% in 2021 on the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The rate of unemployment was estimated at 26% in quarter 4 of 2021. The NEET rate (Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training) was 39.4% in quarter 4 of 2021. The Human Capital Index was estimated at 0.4 in 2021. Upper income countries generally have superior indicators than these.

These indicators suggest that Botswana is not doing a good job of converting economic progress into generalised improvement in human wellbeing. Part of this is explained by a slow pace of economic diversification and jobless growth. It is quite likely though the more determinative force behind Botswana’s human development is the relative ineffectiveness of Botswana’s high investment in the development of human capital. At 0.4 on a scale of 0 to 1, the Human Capital Index (HCI), suggests that by age 18, the average young Motswana achieves only 40% of his/her potential human capital (productive capacity). This represents a huge waste of human potential, which is further compounded by high and growing NEET and unemployment rates.

3. ANALYSIS OF THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET

The People’s Budget is based on a critical analysis of the National Budget. According to the 2022/23 Estimates of Expenditure from the Consolidated Fund the Government of Botswana plans to spend P97, 884, 417, 067 in fiscal 2022/23, up more than P15.3 billion from P82, 569, 505, 561 in fiscal 2022/23.

The highlights are as follows:

 The ministries with the largest shares of the budget were the Ministry of Education and Skills Development (MOESD) at 15.37%, Ministry of Health (MOH) at 10.53%, Ministry of Defence and Security (MDS) at 10.05%, and Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MLGRD) at 8.40%. Taking into account the National AIDS and Health Promotion Agency’s budget, the health budget goes up by a further P113.5 million.

 The ministries with the least allocations were the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security (MMGE) at 0.42%, Ministry of Nationality, Immigration and Gender Affairs (MNIGA) and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing Development (MIH), both at 0.59%.

 Military spending increased by P135.02 million to P8.53 billion compared to the 2021/2022 approved budget.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT (MOESD)

MOESD was allocated P9, 867,966,950, up P1, 914,609,710 from the combined MOBE and MOTE allocation of P13, 126,758,280 in fiscal 2022/23

 With an allocation of P7,899,961,000, the Department of Teaching Service Management gets the bulk (52.52%) of the MOESD budget

 The allocation of P609, 863,820 to skills development is welcome. Hopefully it will be spent on reskilling and up-skilling teachers to equip them to deliver the skills the economy needs now and in the future.

 The Department of Pre-Primary and Primary Education was allocated a paltry P39,156,490 continuing a pattern of underinvestment in in this area that was witnessed in 2022/23 (P36, 705,220) when the primary and pre-primary education budget went down 64.5% from P103, 393,690. The reduction in the department’s budget represents an unexpected and undesirable reduction in investment in children.

 The Department of Secondary Education was allocated P1, 626,579,400 compared to authorized expenditure of P1, 957,642,210 in fiscal 2022/23. The reduction in the department’s budget is a curious development because actual spending for 2021-22 was much higher at P2, 217,970,352.

 Also worrisome, the Ministry’s development budget fell from P1, 173,442,439 in fiscal 2022/23 to P733, 774,500 in 2023/24. This does not bode well for Reset in education, which is still mired in crisis. The Reset in education requires significant investment in broadening and deepening the skills sets of educators, expanding and modernising school infrastructure (classrooms, laboratories and workshops, providing up to date equipment in laboratories and workshops and overhauling curriculum to align education to the skills needs of the future.

MINISTRY OF HEALTH (MOH)

The Ministry of Health was allocated a total of P10, 310,456,480 up P305, 217,380 from P10, 005,239,100 in fiscal 2022/23. Covid-19 is the reason the MOH gets a much larger allocation than had been the case prior to 2020

 Due mostly to Covid-19, the MOH was allocated above trend budgets since 2020. This is progressive and is welcome. The key concerns, which the National Budget should address frontally, are systemic inefficiencies that drive unit costs up as well as procurement-related inefficiencies and corruption.

 The public health system is in a deep crisis. Whereas other countries have used the tragedy of Covid-19 to revamp their health systems, Botswana has lost the opportunity. Public health needs a Reset that requires change management and extensive process innovation to address system inefficiencies, ramp up operational efficiency and effectiveness and create some fiscal space.

MINISTRY OF DEFENCE AND SECURITY (MJS)

Though Justice has been removed from it, the MJS saw its budget increase from P8, 525,435,320 in 2022/23 to P9, 842,677,690, an increase of P1, 317,242,370.

 With a budget of P5, 747,892,350, the Botswana Defence Force (BDF) accounts for 58.40% of the 2023/24 MJS budget. Its budget increased by P831,896,800

 The Botswana Police Service has been allocated P3,138,675,790, up P299,318,940 from P2,839,356,850 The third institution under the ministry, Prisons and Rehabilitation Services, was allocated 685,472,450.

MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT (MLGRD)

The MLGRD was allocated a total budget of P8, 224,186,090, up P1, 071,395,910 from P7, 152,790,180 in fiscal 2022/23. The highlights for the ministry are as follows:

 The bulk of the MLGRD’s 2023/24 budget, P5, 223,382,290 went to the Department of Local Government Finance and Procurement. This money goes to the districts. It increased by P610, 908,450 from 4,612,473,840. Much of this increase is due to the creation of new districts.

 The Department of Social Protection (DSP), a key priority for civil society, had its budget increased by more than P200 million to P1, 933,457,020 from P1,724,451,620. The department got a similar budget increase in 2022/23. The original P200 million plus budget increase for the department was due in part to P100 increases to four social assistance programmes – the Old Age Pension, Destitution Allowance, Disability Allowance and World War II Veterans Allowance – which together accounted for P1.29 billion of the recurrent budget in 2022/23. Covid-19 and rising unemployment are no doubt key factors in the growth of the population in need of social assistance.

 The DSP was allocated P296, 253,220, down marginally from P298, 649,040 in 2022/23, for Grants Subventions and Other Payments. P221, 481,040 of this amount went to the Orphan Care Programme. A paltry P12, 694,500 went to grants to NGOs. S.O.S. Children’s Village was allocated P6, 825,000.

 The budget for the Department of Community Development was a paltry with P12,074,170, 69.95% of which went to personnel emoluments. That left a little over P4,000,000 for community development projects around the country.

 The Department of Rural Development was allocated ONLY 6,828,310, the bulk of which, 85.28% of which went to salaries, leaving too little for programmes that touch people’s lives. In essence, the department’s budget was a personnel budget.

MINISTRY OF YOUTH, GENDER, SPORT AND CULTURE (MYSC)

MYSC was allocated P887, 985,660 which is almost P100 million less than the P964,964,060 it was allocated in fiscal 2022/23. This is a critical ministry, for it invests in young people, empowering them and creating opportunity for them.

 For the fiscal year 2023/24, MYSC has budgeted P272, 844,260 for grants and subventions, mostly to a number of non-government institutions it implements. Key amongst these are:

− Botswana National Sports Council: P116,198,370, down about P2,000,000 from P116,198,370 in 2022/23

− From P104, 000,000 in 2022/23, the Out of school Youth Programme gets no allocation from the MYSC budget.

− National Arts Council of Botswana: P24,883,700, up from P3,000,000 in 2022/23

− National Sports Development Programmes: P27,150,000, same as in 2022/23, and a manifold increase from P1,518,547 in 2021/25

− Constituency Sports Tournaments Prize Money: P14,500,000, down P3,500,000 from only P18,000,000 in 2022/23

− Constituency Arts Competitions Prize Money: P13,025,000, unchanged from
2022/23 and 383 times the P34,000 allocated in fiscal 2021/22

− President Day Competitions: P13,000,000, almost double the 2022/23 allocation of P6,750,825

− President’s Day Competitions Prize Money: 4,999,000

− Botswana National Youth Council: P4,500,000 down from P4,850,635 in 2022/23

Worrisomely, the general trend is toward decreasing investment in young people. The multiplicity of initiatives is also a source of concern since virtually all of them are under-funded. Prioritization and consolidation under no more than 2-3 programmes, targeting sports and recreation, creatives, and education and skills development, would significantly improve both efficiency and impact on youth.

 The Department of Gender Affairs has been allocated P49, 600,410 nearly half of which is personnel emoluments.

4. THE PEOPLE’S BUDGET

Civil society is interested in the philosophical underpinnings of the budget, i.e., the value system that informs the national budget. In general, civil society is particularly interested in the likely distributional impacts of the budget, specifically, how people-centred, planet sensitive and equitable the budget is. For these reasons, three principles guided the development of the Alternative Budget, namely:

 Impact on Human welfare: We sought to protect or expand expenditure that accords vulnerable citizens the capacity to meet their basic needs. That means that expenditure on social assistance and basic services, e.g., education, health, nutrition, water, electricity, sanitation, etc., is are sacrosanct

 The protection and expansion of expenditures that expand the economy’s productive capacity: We prioritise investment in children, human capital development and productive Infrastructure

 Fiscal Sustainability: We support measures to restore fiscal buffers, including containing the growth of public debt, expanding the tax base, eliminating corruption and waste, and improving the efficiency of public spending.

Based on the above principles, the People’s budget makes the following adjustments to the National Budget

a) Roll back defence spending by 10%, all from the Botswana Defence Force budget. The rationale for the decision is simple. First, defence spending is not an investment. Second, Botswana’s greatest national security risks do not come from hostile neighbours. Rather, they are socio-economic and cyber-related. Our priority should be pushing back forcefully against unemployment and poverty and strengthening our cyber-security.

b) The P100 increase in the Old Age Pension that came into effect in fiscal 2021/22 notwithstanding, civil society is convinced that at P630 per month the old age pension is too low to accord seniors decent substance. It prefers raising the allowance to at least a third of the living of the Living Wage of P3, 000. Accordingly, the People’s budget proposes raising the Old Age pension to P1000 in fiscal 2023/24. This demographic has less than 100,000, so it will cost at most P57, 000,000, which is small relative to the national budget but would have a significant impact on the wellbeing of seniors.

c) Increase spending on pre-primary education by P500, 000,000 to accelerate progress towards universal access to pre-primary education and compensate for the 64.5% reduction in spending on pre-primary education that occurred in fiscal 2021/22. In 2021, the pre-primary net enrolment rate was only 17.3%. This is a key determinant of learner performance.

d) Currently, the Rural Development Budget has no provision for programmes. It got a budget of only P6, 828,310, all of which went to salaries (85.23%) and operational expenses). The people’s budget proposes P10, 000,000 for rural development projects.

e) Increase the budget allocations to civil society by P10, 000,000 for development programmes. This means that the MLHA’s budget goers up by P10, 000,000.

f) The budget for Tertiary Education goes up by P352, 000,000 to strengthen funding for the under-served area of Technical and Vocational Education and Training ((TVET is especially critical for the development of artisan skills and the reduction of unemployment.

g) Strengthen project appraisal, procurement, implementation and oversight to minimise waste and initiate far reaching reforms to ensure that:

 The Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crimes is sufficiently independent and empowered to pursue corruption without fear or favour

 The country’s laws are sufficient to deal effectively with conflict of interest and insider trading

 The efficiency and effectiveness with which government projects are
implemented reduces unit costs significantly to save the 37% of the development budget that goes to waste and expand fiscal space. That could free nearly P8billion of the development budget for investment.